
Apple’s biggest keynote of the year always features the iPhone, and usually the Apple Watch plus, sometimes, another product like AirPods. It always falls in roughly the first half of September, mostly on a Tuesday or Wednesday. And never on Sept. 11.
This gives us three possible pairs of dates: Tuesday, Sept. 2 or Wednesday, Sept. 3, Tuesday, Sept. 9 or Wednesday, Sept. 10, or Tuesday, Sept. 16 or Wednesday, Sept. 17.
We can rule out the first pair as that completely clashes with the big consumer electronics show in Berlin, IFA, which runs Sept. 5-9, with press days just before that. U.S. and international press will be tied up in Germany that week. Also, Labor Day is Monday, Sept. 1, and Apple doesn’t choose the week Labor Day falls in.
The final pair of dates seems too late for me, though they’re not impossible — if Apple hits a snag in production, it can move the launch to that week. Most likely are Tuesday, Sept. 9 or Wednesday, Sept. 10.